OUInsider - Owen Field

Sorry, near home field. So you must concede home field matters then, just not when you play 45 miles from your home field as in LSU's case. Is there a mileage limit that counts? Like if they play across the street from their home field, is that close enough? Or once LSU got more than 30 miles, did that negate the advantage? I just wanna learn so I can make some money. Once I know how far away home field advantage exists, I can count new players and get rich.

First, your numbers are misleading. I was at OU-USC game which you claim was 70-30 OU. You count that has part of your proof. It was not 70-30 OU, but that doesn't matter. Crowd doesn't matter when game is a blowout. A lot of fans left at halftime. As I have said and you ignore, home teams do not always win. Can you at least agree to that? Obviously they do not always win. Is it an advantage to play on your home field? Yes. Can that same theory apply when you play in your backyard? Yes. Ask any coach. I know a few but don't believe me, go ask for yourself. Does home field or near home field guarantee a win? No. That is what I have said all along. But in close games between equal teams, it can be the difference. Was Auburn or Oregon advantaged? Not really. Both far from home. Texas or Alabama? Who knows. When McCoy went down they were no longer equal type teams. Alabama-LSU. Alabama thumped them. So what? LSU had an advantage of near home field. They wasted it. The crowd never even got into it. Alabama was better that night. Did LSU and Florida have an advantage over us? IMO yes. I was at both games and yes the crowd mattered. Were you there? Could we have won if roles were reversed and games played in KC or Dallas and we had the crowd advantage? Possibly, but no guarantee. I would have loved to find out though. Either game could have went either way. Sometimes emotion and crowd plays into it. Pretty elementary conventional reality, I'd say.

When LSU got behind quick, was the crowd into it? Fact, no it was not. The crowd did not have chance to impact. My "theory" is really only common sense that Vegas factors into every point spread. Sorry, but where the game is played matters, with or without NEW players. But you are smarter than Vegas. Congrats. I'll bet they've banned you there. And thanks for the support. All or almost the SEC aligned bowls are in the South. Pretty big advantage I'd say. They should have to go play one of those Big 10 schools in Detroit in January. Oh, but that wouldn't be an advantage to Ohio St. in your world.

A lot of SEC schools travel well, a lot of Big 10 schools don't. Pretty good chance that a game in Detroit would have a fairly balanced turnout for each team.

If Ohio State was set to play for a NCG in Detroit, which is about 220 miles from Columbus, against Bama, I'd expect the fan turnout to be fairly balanced, with OSU having a small edge. Perhaps 60-40 tops. Bama travels pretty well, especially for a NCG. It's far enough from Columbus that people who cannot afford to spend the night likely won't make the trip. A few hard core types might make the drive and catch the game, and drive back afterwards, but not too many, especially in January. Detroit's stadium is a dome too. So, no weather issues. Any advantage to Ohio State would be miniscule (I keep using that word), and would not alter the outcome. Considering that the SEC has a better record outside the south in NCGs than in the south, my money would be on Bama. Who do you think Vegas would have as the favorite in such a game? I also have no doubt that, if OSU won, it would be because they had an "advantage", but if OSU lost, there'd be some other excuse you'd throw out there.

I'm sure "you'd" say it was a big advantage, but the SEC's record outside of the south says otherwise. Results of actual games played carries far more weight than your gut instinct.

Did you know that people placing bets are often smarter than Vegas odds makers? Odds makers put a number out there and it moves based on which side people bet on more. Also, their goal is to balance each side to make sure they profit regardless of the outcome. It's all based on what betters think will happen. The actual lines are a result of betters activity, not the oddsmakers. They get that initial spread wrong just about every time. Keep citing them as a source though. It's totally legit.

You bring up the reference to new players again. That was from a different discussion and I was talking about true road games and the RRS, which is never a near-home game for either team and never has an unbalanced crowd. Every time you try to drag that into this discussion you are arguing that new players do not have any problems when they get their first taste of a hostile environment. Good luck making that stick.

Are you expanding the discussion to all bowls now? Are you that in need of some way to come up with something since you have no actual data to back your position? It seems interesting that you started referencing other bowls without stopping to factor in that whole "equal teams" idea. When your own assertions start falling by the wayside, there's a reason. Have you also given up making an excuse for every "near-home" team that loses and using crowd disparity as an excuse for every "near-home" team that wins? That seems to have fallen by the wayside as well.

Got behind quick? Really? Bama kicked a FG 10 minutes into the game, and it stayed 3-0 until 4 minutes left in the half. How does that constitute "getting up quick". Hell, you've just proved my point for me. How in the world can that near-home game location and the disparate crowd be any kind of advantage if all you have to do is kick a damn FG and shut them all up?

Yes, clearly a crowd of fans quieted by a 3 point deficit at the end of the first quarter is an advantage. Right.

All the more reason that crowd disparity is a miniscule advantage. If it was actually a big advantage, the crowd would have helped fuel LSU to start making some plays. That didn't happen.

LSU had a big advantage, according to you, because the game was in New Orelans, and Bama kicks a FG 10 minutes in and silences them. Now I'm laughing.

LSU down 9-0 at half, 12-0 early in 3rd. I know it is foreign concept to you since you don't go to any of these games, but the tension in stadium is high. As you start falling behind, the crowd gets quieter and quieter. Perhaps someday you'll go to a big game and understand. Your other post was too long to read. More of same nonsense so I'm sure its not worth effort. I'm tired and one day of pointless arguments is enough for me. Vegas and I think location of game matters. You and .......well just about nobody else believes it is meaningless. I feel like I've been wrestling a pig.

The idea that a team "got down quick" because they were down 3-0 at the end of the first quarter and fell behind 6-0 with 4 minutes left inthe half is a foreign concept to just about anyone. It's a suggestion I'd expect from someone who sees analysis and facts as nonsense in the face of pure conjecture. It's pretty lame for you to talk about whether I've been to any big games in the same post where you are saying that being down 3-0 will take the crowd out of a game even though, according to you, having a bigger share of fans is an advantage.

The actual results of the games are not on your side.

I never accused you of saying that either. I accused you of saying that being down 3-0 took the LSU crowd out of the game. Here's a quote from you that I was referring to.

You said:

"When LSU got behind quick, was the crowd into it? Fact, no it was not."

That is, plain and simple, you saying that the crowd was out of the game with LSU being down 3-0. The score remained 3-0 until just 4 minutes left in the half. I think it is without merit that you even suggested that a single FG in the entire first quarter (10 minutes in no less) somehow constitutes a team "getting behind quick" but that's exactly what you said.

Didn't Matt Hayes write that just before LSU failed to cross the 50 until the 3rd quarter against a team it had already beaten earlier int he season?

The crowd was an advantage? You already said that they were silenced early due to that monstrous 3-0 lead that Bama had at the end of the first quarter. You said that when LSU got behind quick, the crowd was not in it. Where's the advantage?

All of a sudden the turf is an advantage too? Has Bama never heard of turf? The artificial turf sure didn't seem to bother their defense any.

Hmm, we've been talking about NCGs for LSU in the Superdome and you say they're 4-1. I'm not sure your stats are accurate.

1) Vegas values home field anywhere from 3-5 points. It usually gets to higher values later in the year. Not my opinion, just google it. - we're not discussing home games.

2) SI writer who is good authority on college football writes article on the advantage of playing in Super Dome for LSU. - And then LSU gets totally dominated by a team they were able to beat in Tuscaloosa. Speaking of which, considering how dominant Bama was against LSU, why couldn't they dominate LSU in Tuscaloosa with their home crowd behind them? Wierd.

3) LSU players describe how they feel it is an advantage to play in New Orleans. - The players you quoted said they were comfortable there. none of them said it was an advantage. Simple and undeniable logic. Any discussion of advantages is inherently comparative. No matter how comfortable LSU's players are in the Superdome, it is no advantage if their opponents players feel the same way because then you ahve two comfortable teams playing. The game itself is proof that Bama's players were also comfortable, maybe even more so.

4) LSU is 4-1 in BCS Bowl Games in New Orleans. That's 80% against pretty evenly matched teams. -The assertion that the teams were evenly matched is unsubsantiated and seems inconsistent with your prior assertions about what it means for teams to be evenly matched.

5) Experience. I have been to many BCS and NCGs and felt the crowd surges and seen the effect. You have not, so you discount it as lame. - You have no idea how many BCS games I have been to.

6) Common sense. Even you said you would have initially thought it mattered. - I did think that way once upon a time, but I was wrong.

You even posted OU would benefit from playing in El Paso to prepare for RRR. - No I didn't. I posted that playing at UTEP would help OU's new players be more prepared for the RRS. That inherently excludes all the returning starters or upperclassmen.

But since you cling to the "where you play doesn't matter" mantra, - My mantra is that teams ot play in neutral site games in their own area, such as LSU in NO or UF in the OB that any crowd advantage is miniscule. That's nowhere near the idea that "where you play doesn't matter". This is just a textbook example of the lame debate tactic of the gross exaggeration, which is a strong sign of a weak position.

you had to come up with the new players theorem. - I didn't HAVE to do anything. That was a whole other thread on an unrelated topic. You brought it over here and tried to make it fit.

Apparently, it only matters where you play for about 4 games. - I don't know where you are getting your numbers from, but new players at the beginning of the season that have never travelled are a far cry from new players who have a full season of road/neutral site games under their belt, which is the case for anyone playing in a NCG.

BTW, I do agree that inexperience is a factor in a teams development. Pretty obvious. - Well, you flat out refuted that earlier in this thread.

Your case:
1) you point to 6 or 7 games where the outcome is 3-3 or 3-4. That's it. - This thread is about the SEC playing in NCGs in their home state/region. There's only so many of those to rely on. It's called staying on topic.

You select a population of 6 or 7 games to base your theory. If you knew economics, you'd know that is not statistically valid. - I can point to 6 or 7 more games than you can.

And you can't go back and say we are only talking NCGs. - Yes I can, that's been the topic from the start.

You already said OU playing in OKC is only a minuscule competitive advantage to OU. I'd say your theory holds no water. - You'd be wrong.

"1) Vegas values home field anywhere from 3-5 points. It usually gets to higher values later in the year. Not my opinion, just google it. - we're not discussing home games. --We've discussed both and teams playing near home receive advantages. Check out point spreads when OU plays in OKC."

I like you you stick to quoting a stat for the type of games we're NOT talking about.

"2) SI writer who is good authority on college football writes article on the advantage of playing in Super Dome for LSU. - And then LSU gets totally dominated by a team they were able to beat in Tuscaloosa. Speaking of which, considering how dominant Bama was against LSU, why couldn't they dominate LSU in Tuscaloosa with their home crowd behind them? Wierd.-- I thought you stay on topic? According to you, if a team doesn't win every time, there is no advantage."

Wrong. Mis-stating what I've said with rediculous exaggerations just makes you look weak in your position. You do that a lot by the way. According to me, if near-home game crowds were anything more than a miniscule advantage, there should be evidence of it in actual game results, but there's not.

"Guess that is why you place no value on home or near home field."

Another mis-statement. I've made no such assertion about true road/home games. That's just totally disingenuous of you to even say.

"But me and Matt Hayes think it matters. I'll take Matt's opinion over yours. Weird."

Yes, if a columnist says it, it must be true. I'll stick to actual applicable game results instead of conjecture.

"the whole article was about their advantage. Talk about seeing what you want to see."

You didn't post the whole article. I replied to what you chose to post.

"4) LSU is 4-1 in BCS Bowl Games in New Orleans. That's 80% against pretty evenly matched teams. -The assertion that the teams were evenly matched is unsubsantiated and seems inconsistent with your prior assertions about what it means for teams to be evenly matched.---go back to 1st post. My whole point was that in evenly matched games, home or near home field crowds can make a difference. Your 6 games matter, but these 5 don't."

Just so we're clear, you are asserting that LSU playing against that weak ND team in the Sugar Bowl was a game of evenly matched teams? That's a worse assertion than your earlier claim that LSU "fell behind quick" to Alabama even though the game was scoreless for the first 10 minutes. Speaking of which, I've noticed that you've avoided that assertion since you made it. Care to finally defend how a game that went scoreless for the first 10 minutes saw LSU "fall behind quick"? Also, don't talk about minimizing which games count and which don't after trying to narrow the focus to LSU in the Superdome and thus excluding games like FSU or UF in the OB and USC in the RB.

"Matt's article was about LSU being 4-0 at the time."

Key words there are "at the time". Bama had a home crowd in their first game against LSU and lost. LSU had the near-home crowd in the rematch and got absolutely demolished. Where's the advantage? LSU can win with the holstile crowd but can't even cross the 50 with the near-home crowd? Where was the near-home crowd advantage when FSU couldn't even score against OU? USC needed a stop to clinch a NCG and had the near-home crowd supporting their defense and Vince Young strolled into the endzone untouched. If there was any time for a near-home crowd to get fired up and make any real impact, that was it, and nothing happened.

Again, you've never been there. And only small difference between "minuscule" and "doesn't matter".

I'm curious on what basis you think you have any idea what games I have ever been to or not. You have repeatedly tried to pass yourself off as some sort of expert on big games and yet you think LSU "fell behind quick" and that LSU v. ND in the Sugar Bowl was "evenly matched teams". Your efforts to establish some sort of superior mastery of the topic fails in the face of some of the rediculous claims you've made in this thread.

"I never refuted that youth matters."

No, you merely sought out a post about the value of new players getting experience away from home early in the season and applied it to a discussion on near-home crowds in NCGs (which are played at the END of the season). It was rediculous when you did it and it still is.

"I just pointed out your hypocrisy."

You tried to point out hypocrisy by comparing two unrelated topics that have no practical relation to each other.

"I believe there are lots of factors that can be advantageous to a team without being an excuse."

You also have made a lot of excuses in this thread for eams whose performance did not fit your theory.

"now you want to backtrack to only NCGS"

I've been talking about NCGs the entire time.

"OU gets miniscule competitive advantage in OKC". Really? But you do leave open possibility that home field matters. No commitment though. And you can't go back and say we are only talking NCGs. - Yes I can, that's been the topic from the start.---nice try, see last comment. You already said OU playing in OKC is only a minuscule competitive advantage to OU."

You brought up OKC, not me. My answering your shift in topic does not by any stretch constitute a shift in the scope of my position. Had I brought up anything about OKC in an unsolicited manner you'd have a point, but I didn't, so you don't. You have an impressive array of lame debate tactics. This one is lesws common, so I commend you, but it still fails. I mean, you start talking basketball and then try to paint it like I brought it up? That's petty.

"not according to experience"

You mean that same "experience" that led you to the conclusion that LSU "fell behind quick" and that LSU v. ND was a game of evenly matched teams?