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Sorry guys, this is a "premium" article at ESPN. But for those with ESPN the Mag or INsider, it's a good read. I'll post a few comments for us to help start a discussion.
Why the Sooners can win it all
1. They have college football's most experienced QB
2. This figures to be their best offensive line in years
3. Their star-studded secondary should be stingy under new regime
Why the Sooners won't win it all
1. Outside of Stills, the wide receivers are green
2. The defensive line doesn't appear to have a difference-maker
3. The final stretch of the schedule is brutal
Most likely result: 11-1 (35 percent likelihood)
Projection window: 9-3 to 12-0 (95 percent likelihood)
Swing games: versus Texas, at West Virginia, versus Oklahoma State, at TCU
Still, the Sooners are the top dog in the conference and have at least a 70 percent win likelihood in every game this year. The game with Texas on Oct. 13 is the only major hurdle in their first nine games according to our projections, and we give Oklahoma a 44 percent chance of getting to 9-0. There's a 61 percent chance they'll lose one or two of their last three games, however, with road trips to Big 12 newcomers West Virginia and TCU sandwiched around the rivalry game against Oklahoma State. Overall, our numbers give the Sooners a 17 percent chance of going undefeated in the regular season. -- Brian Fremeau
I also wanted to add, their numbers show USC with a 9% chance to go undefeated, and Oregon with a 25% (!) chance to go undefeated. The Pac12 is a cakewalk compared to the B12 and SEC.
This post was edited by kwest2 on 6/13/2012 at 9:52 AM
Good review. OU will be favored in every game (barring unusual happenings) but they lost twice last year when they were favored.
I would say OUr odds of going undefeated are greater than 17% in my opinion. Perhaps 30% or even higher.
What were our odds of going undefeated in 2000? Must have been less than 5%.......
WV, osu, TCU, and a top team such as Bama in the NC game? That would be a tough stretch for anyone! I like to think that we can go undefeated every year, yet that looks formidable.
I would like to table my prediction until at least the second week of fall camp...wanna see who is here...who is performing and team chemistry...
This post was edited by wilsonIII on 6/13/2012 at 4:35 PM
more like .005
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