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I've posted these before. It's part of the "Insider" content at ESPN. I'll post a summary since it's subscription based, but those who subscribe can access the full article here:
(As an aside, I highly recommend an ESPN the mag subscription from a discount deal website - that provides free access to all ESPN Insider premium content)
Position by Position breakdown:
Texas offense vs. Oklahoma defense
• Co-offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin is doing a great job of staying committed to the ground game while continuing to add new wrinkles each week.
• Oklahoma DBs Javon Harris and Tony Jefferson have been extremely effective in run support through the first four games.
• Ash has been one of the biggest surprises through the first part of the 2012 college football season.
Oklahoma offense vs. Texas defense
• QB Landry Jones is coming off by far his best performance of the year in last week's 41-20 win over Texas Tech. He appeared comfortable in the pocket, was accurate and, most importantly, made good decisions.
• The Sooners' perimeter is beginning to gather some continuity with Jones.
• Up front, Texas continues to have issues defending the run. Along the front seven, they are struggling to maintain gap integrity, which has provided runners with too many creases.
This game is a hard call. Two key areas lean in Texas' favor. First is their ability to generate pressure on the quarterback off the edges, led by Okafor and Jeffcoat (10 combined sacks). Texas' second major advantage is their offensive efficiency and ability to control the clock. Expect another sound effort from the Longhorns' offensive line that will open up creases for their stable of runners. This will set the stage for Ash to dial up a few clutch downfield throws, and will be enough to give the Longhorns the victory.
Prediction: Longhorns 34, Sooners 30
My own thoughts:
Hard to discern exactly why UT's DBs and STs are rated above OU's. Perhaps because of their KOR ability. But they've got a very shaky FG kicker, and their own KO defense has been porous. I'd give OU the edge here. And although NFL scouts may like UT's talent in the secondary better, ours has played much better this year. I'll give UT the edge in the trenches (which often dictates the outcome of games), but most everywhere else on the field OU has played better to this point.
I think we are going to see Heupel draw up a number of screens and other plays to counter UT's overagressive DE pursuit. But I do agree that OU is going to have a challenge consistently stopping the run, similar to what we saw against KSU.
I'd call it OU 31, UT 27.
This post was edited by kwest2 18 months ago
They give the texas OL too much credit.
There is nothing more dangerous in this world than a man with nothing to lose.
One big difference is UT has played a lot better offenses than OU. Oklahoma State and West Virginia are at the very top in the country offensively and OU hasn't seen anything like those caliber of offenses. So I find it hard to say at this point how the defenses compare to one another. Hopefully we will be able to put points up like other teams have but one thing I have learned is you can never guess what is going to happen when OU and UT meet!
This game appears on paper as a pick 'em. Its too close to call. My unprofessional opinion says the score will be 27-24. With the winner to be determined.
Looks like a pretty fair assessment. In my opinion, the key will be our offense. We'll need to have success both in the air and on the ground to keep the Texas D off balance and keep their offense off the field. We'll have trouble with their run game without question. They have the advantage in both lines-usually a key in any ballgame. This is a MUCH better Texas game than we faced last year and we aren't as good. Likely be a nail biter.
Nail Biter? Your assessment makes it seem like we are in for a real beat-down! I hope you're analysis of this team is as accurate as it was last week.
It’s going to come down to the tale of two teams as far as OU is concerned. If the team that played this past week at TT shows up we win big, if the team that showed up in the K-State game shows up UT wins big. In the TT game our offense was much more productive and showed a lot of improvement from the K-State game. LJ seemed relaxed and played much closer to his potential than he did in the K-State game. At TT our defense seemed to have the light come on, they played with an edge to them with much higher intensity than they did in the K-State game. They were able to force turn-overs and the team was able to capitalize on those turn-overs.
I don’t think our schedule this year did us any favors at all. The fact that we only had two non-conference games before we started Big-12 play didn’t do us any favors this year. As was shown we really needed one more game under our belt before we were anywhere close to being ready to start playing Big-12 teams. We had a lot of youth on this team that would have really benefited from one more non-conference game. There’s nothing that can be done about that now and hopefully we will continue to improve as we go on with our schedule and play to our potential.
As it is in every one of these games what has taken place before this game doesn’t really have that much effect on this game. We can nit-pick this position and that position but the bottom line is that both teams have some pretty good athletes and both teams know what’s at stake in this game. I look for a war this year because both teams are well aware of the fact that the winner of this game has a chance to make something of this year and the other team is pretty much going to be on the outside looking in.
We are going to have to take it up a step from the TT game and continue to show improvement this week. We need to play with an edge and with aggression on every play. LJ is going to have to use all his play makers and not lock on just one for us to have success Saturday. In short I think if both teams bring their “A” games we are going to win. If we play like we have at times in our earlier games we aren’t going to like the outcome. I really hope, but don’t really expect UT to show up a little down after dropping their game last week. We have had some things go against us this year and really need to have a few things go in our favor this week. This is just one of those years where I’m hoping for a win but really don’t know what OU team is going to show up.
Fair assessment except for the DB's. Our top 4 DB's are better than any other in the Big 12. Javon has flashes of brilliance and has matured over the last 3 years. Demontre is solid at CB. Colvin and Jefferson are future NFL stars.
I tend to agree. Not certain OU will win, but the Texas line has been overated for some time. IMHO
A well called and executed game plan can mitigate the UT DL advantage. I believe we will do this effectively and OUr O will give us a chance to win.
OUr D...more specifically, the ability for UT to run will determine the outcome of the game. If they can run, our chances diminish greatly.
Of course, TO's are often a deciding factor as well and can shake up the game in so many ways.
I think Texas is a fraud that is going to get exposed (AGAIN!) on Saturday.
OU 47, wHorens 24
I think the same thing and hope we are right.
I agree Texas has played great offenses in OSU and WVU, at the same time, Texas has not played a decent defense this year. I think OU's defense is a lot better than decent. It should be a great game. I'll put M. Stoops vs. Diaz any day of the week.
TBH it's a bit of a shot at Heupel, but Dana Holgorsen had Geno Smith and called a helluva game including making numerous in game adjustments and still only won by 3 points largely due to our offense shooting itself in the foot and making no adjustments (unlike the game Harsin called against OSU) despite being able to run at will against our defense. Mitigating the advantage that Okafor and Jeffcoat have will be pretty hard to do considering neither OSU or WVU's DL could do it even with mobile QB's. Odds are yall will get some big plays as that has been our biggest weakness, but Stoops won't let Heupel go for it on fourth down five times in the game and Landry won't be able to convert all five.
If David King is a DT this weekend, it could get ugly for yall in terms of run stopping effectively.
TO's will be the difference, we have only had 3 so far (1 INT, 2 fumbles) and I could see us having more this week but I don't think they'll be picks. Ash is just on a whole different level than he was last year. If he somehow is able to increase by as much as he has between this year and last again, he'll win the Heisman and he'll be the greatest QB to play at Texas ever, probably by a wide margin. I wouldn't expect him to have a repeat performance from last year's RRR.
Vacarro and Diggs both have 3 picks each and I could definitely see them add to that number this weekend. Landry will be pressured this weekend, if he turns the ball over like he has recently, it could get bad in a hurry.
Here's some numbers that definitely support that.
Ole Miss: scoring D - #73, total D - #56
New Mexico: scoring D - #83, total D - #86
OSU: scoring D - #92, total D - #46
Wyoming: scoring D - #98, total D - #109
West Virginia: scoring D - #102, total D - #102
Just think about that. The best D UT has faced is OSU?
OU: scoring D - #19, total D - #17
Other interesting stats:
Rushing Defense: UT - #83 - 182 ypg, OU - #56 - 143 ypg
Passing Defense: UT - #55 - 221 ypg, OU - #9 - 158 ypg
Pass Efficiency D: UT - #90 OU - #8
This post was edited by CrimsonMarc 18 months ago
Well, the RRR has been decided by 10 points or less 4 out of the past 5 years, with last year being the exception. Also, if you start counting backwards as far as wins and losses go, OU and UT are 31-31-3 in the last 65 RRR games played.
After the 1947 game Texass had a 29-11-2 edge (plus-18). Texass now has a plus-17 edge in wins.
Why does it not surprize me ESPN would pick ut?
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